The business cycle and leading, lagging and coincident indicators

What this note covers

1. What the business cycle model represents
2. The four phases: expansion, peak, contraction and trough
3. Leading indicators: signals of where the economy is heading
4. Coincident and lagging indicators: confirming and trailing the cycle
5. Why the timing of indicators matters for policy
6. Worked example: reading Meridale's indicator dashboard
7. How this topic is examined and what earns full marks

7 sections · 11 key terms & formulas · 6 common mistakes